Daily Market Recap - Gold & Silver Update
外汇天眼 | 2021-02-17 10:10:51
摘要：Yesterday, most U.S. markets were closed due to President Day. In addition, Chinese markets are also closed due to the holidays that accompany the lunar New Year.
Yesterday, most U.S. markets were closed due to President Day. In addition, Chinese markets are also closed due to the holidays that accompany the 外汇知识 lunar New Year. Monday was therefore a quiet session for both gold and silver. The latter continued to outperform at the start of the week, appreciating by more than 1% to close at around $27.6. The yellow metal was down about 0.3% to end the session at $1,818.
On Tuesday we noticed a deterioration in gold prices in lockstep with silver. The latter falling by 1.25 percent and the former also down by roughly the same amount. Steepening US Treasury yields are the main drivers in the metals weakness today. The yield on the 30-year bill rose by 76 basis points while the 10-year is up to 86 basis points, increasing the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing metals.
Traders who were betting on the weak dollar/ strong gold relationship got burnt by the unexpected surge in Treasury yields. While this strategy has its benefits, its major weakness is the effective interest rates can have on the metal. A better way to look at the gold markets should be focusing on the correlation between US treasury yields and 外汇知识 gold, which historically speaking, holds true over the long run.
Meanwhile, gold ETFs experienced another month of net inflows, according to the World Gold Council. In the first month of the year, yellow metal ETFs added 13.8 tonnes of ingots to their inventories. Interestingly, however, it was Europe that fuelled this growth. Gold ETFs from the Old Continent added 17.5 tons of metal to their vaults during January, while American ETFs broke 6.3 tons during the same month.
From a technical aspect, gold looks set to test the 1,780-channel once again in the coming sessions. Momentum is pointing towards a further drop in prices and the RSI has room to drop before hitting oversold conditions. Setting a short target around the 1,760 marks can be envisioned. Failure to cross below 1,780 will set the stage for a consolidation play around the 1,800 level.
(Chart Source: Tradingview 16.02.2021)
Looking at silver, the main trend remains up on the daily chart as the metal benefits from strong upward momentum since the start of 外汇知识 the year. The 20-day moving average should keep any dips in check for the time being. A breach below will open up the possibility of a test of the 26 marks.
Disclaimer: This material has been created 外汇知识 for information purposes only. All views expressed in this document are my own and do not necessarily represent the opinions of any entity.
EURUSD New lows following Jerome Powell's hawkish speech
外汇天眼 | 2022-01-28 10:外汇知识 外汇知识 55:38
摘要：The dollar has been strengthening against the major currencies since Jerome Powell's press conference last night
The dollar has been strengthening against the major currencies since Jerome Powell's press conference last night. The EURUSD is falling back to a near two-month low this morning after the Fed Chairman decided to take a slightly more hawkish stance, while not indicating anything very new from the December meeting.
As expected, monetary policy 外汇知识 remained unchanged, except for the end of QE which was announced for early March instead of late March. Nevertheless, Powell left the pace of normalization of monetary policy unclear, which does not seem to have pleased risky assets. In response to a reporter's question, the chairman left all options on the table to counteract “more persistent than expected” inflation.
The Chairman even left the door open for a rate hike at each meeting, seven by the end of the year, while the Fed usually raises rates at the last meeting of each quarter (up to four per year).
The most likely scenario for Fed policy normalization is now a first-rate hike in March, a second in June, the start of the balance sheet reduction (QT) process by 外汇知识 this summer, a third and possibly a fourth by year-end.
The Fed's hawkish rhetoric was evident in the jump in the dollar and bond yields and the fall in gold and risky assets. In addition, rate 外汇知识 hike expectations increased and the probability of a 50-basis point rate hike in March, the equivalent of two rate hikes, climbed to 20% after Powell's speech.
From a technical perspective, the EURUSD price has broken out of the bottom of the ascending channel in which it has been Trading for almost two months and its Bollinger BANDS, which are signals that pave the way for a continuation of the basic uptrend that we have been experiencing for almost a year.
(Chart Source: Tradingview 27.01.2022)
The EURUSD has continued its downtrend breaking through last year's low of $1.1186. The next target in the 外汇知识 short term will likely be the symbolic threshold at $1.10 in the coming weeks.
The next catalysts to follow will be the US household income and consumption data releases on Friday.
Disclaimer: This material has been created for information purposes only. All views expressed in this document are my own and do not necessarily represent the opinions of any entity.
Daily Market Recap – GBPUSD Soars as Scottish independence referendum less likely
外汇天眼 | 2021-05-11 10:24:34
摘要：The British pound advanced more than 1% against major currencies on Monday, boosted by local election results in the U.K. that saw a narrow victory for pro-independence …
The British pound advanced more than 1% against major currencies on Monday, boosted by local election results in the U.K. that 外汇知识 saw a narrow victory for pro-independence voters in Scotland and an improving health situation in the country.外汇知识
Forex traders were reacting Monday to the results of Thursday's local elections in the United Kingdom, which saw the Scottish National Party (SNP) emerge victorious in Scotland, falling one seat short of an absolute majority.
The U.K. currency gained 0.75 percent against the dollar to $1.4089, the highest since Feb. 25, and 0.71 percent against the European single currency to 86.37 pence per euro. “Short-term concerns about a second referendum on Scottish independence seem to have dissipated somewhat” after Thursday's election results, said Markets.com analyst Neil Wilson
“The main conclusion of the vote is the decrease of political risks in the United Kingdom,” estimated Ricardo Evangelista, an analyst at ActivTrades.
“The SNP having failed to obtain an absolute majority, this leads most analysts to believe that London will be able to delay a new referendum on Scottish independence,” he added, which reduces the short-term risk of a breakup of the United Kingdom and the negative impact 外汇知识 that such an event is likely to have on the value of its currency.
The Scottish Conservatives, who came second with 31 MPs, were also pleased with their leader Douglas Ross for having “blocked a majority for the SNP and an independence referendum”.
Analysts also pointed to the improving health situation across the UK, which is good for the health of the economy and the British currency. The U.K. is expected to announce Monday that it will continue to lift health restrictions, a step that will take effect on May 17.
Since the launch of the vaccination campaign in early December, more than 35 million of the UK's 68 million people have received a first dose of the Covid-19 vaccine.
From a technical perspective, the GBPUSD 外汇知识 has convincingly broken above its downward trendline from February highs. The pair managed to breach the 1.40 外汇知识 psychological resistance level with ease and made a test of the 1.14159 level before retreating slightly.
(Chart Source: Tradingview 10.05.2021)
A close above this point will see the GBPUSD trade at a three-year high with the next resistance set at 1.43823. On the flip side, the immediate support should be felt at the 1.40 mark.
Disclaimer: This material has been created for information purposes only. All views expressed in this document are my own and do not necessarily represent the opinions of any entity.
EURUSD New lows following Jerome Powell's hawkish speech
外汇天眼 | 2022-01-28 10:55:38
摘要：The dollar has been strengthening against the major currencies since Jerome Powell's press conference last night
The dollar has been strengthening against the major currencies since Jerome Powell's press conference last night. The EURUSD is falling back to a near two-month low this morning after the Fed Chairman decided to take a slightly more hawkish stance, while not indicating anything very new from the December meeting.
As expected, monetary policy remained unchanged, except for the end 外汇知识 of QE which was announced for early March instead of late March. Nevertheless, Powell left the pace of normalization of monetary policy unclear, which does not seem to have pleased risky assets. In response to a reporter's question, the chairman left all options on the table to counteract “more persistent than expected” inflation.
The Chairman even left the door open for a rate hike at each meeting, seven by the end of the year, while the Fed usually raises rates at the last meeting of each quarter (up to four 外汇知识 per year).
The most likely scenario for Fed policy normalization is now a first-rate hike in March, a 外汇知识 second in June, the start of the balance sheet reduction (QT) process by this summer, a third and possibly a fourth by year-end.
The Fed's hawkish rhetoric was evident in the jump in the dollar and bond yields and the fall in gold and risky assets. In addition, rate hike expectations increased and the probability of a 50-basis point rate hike in March, the equivalent of two rate hikes, climbed to 20% after Powell's speech.
From a technical perspective, the EURUSD price has broken out of the bottom of the ascending channel in which it has been Trading for almost two months and its Bollinger BANDS, which are signals that pave the way for a continuation of the basic uptrend that we have been experiencing for almost a year.
(Chart Source: Tradingview 27.01.2022)
The EURUSD has continued its downtrend breaking through last year's low of $1.1186. The next target in the short term will likely be the symbolic threshold at $1.10 in the coming weeks.
The next catalysts to follow will be the US household income and consumption data releases on Friday.
Disclaimer: This material has been created for information purposes only. All views expressed in this document are my own and do not necessarily represent the opinions of any entity.