什么是熊市(Bear Market)?


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– Dette er en bear-market-felle

De fleste strateger, økonomer og tradere mener USA-inflasjonen har toppet ut, men også at det kan ta flere år før inflasjonen er tilbake på 2 prosent.

Etter fire strake uker med oppgang ble det bråstopp for Wall Street fredag , og futureshandelen peker mot ny nedtur fra start i mandagens USA-handel.

Federal Reserve er godt i gang med aggressive renteøkninger for å få bukt med den høyeste USA-inflasjonen på over 40 år, og Fed-strategien vil komme i søkelyset for alvor senere denne uken i løpet av sentralbankens årlige Jackson Hole-symposium.

At investorene fortsatt 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? bekymrer seg for om inflasjonen og renteøkningene vil kvele veksten, kommer klart til uttrykk i den siste MLIV Pulse-undersøkelsen, der 68 prosent av de spurte ifølge Bloomberg spår svakere selskapsmarginer og nye børsfall.

Et flertall av de 900 strategene, økonomene og daytraderne mener inflasjonen har toppet ut. Likevel er hele 84 prosent av den oppfatning at det kan 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? to år eller mer før Fed er nede igjen på inflasjonsmålet på 2 prosent.

I mellomtiden vil amerikanske konsumenter kutte forbruket, og arbeidsledigheten stige over 4 prosent.

Det er verdt å merke seg at S&P 500, selv etter noen uker med oppgang, fortsatt er ned 11 prosent i 2022 – mot 23 prosent på bunnen i midten av juni.

– Dette er en bear-market-felle. Inflasjon er den store, stygge ulven. Selv om vi ser et vedvarende fall i inflasjonstakten, kan det ta en stund før prisene faktisk kommer betydelig ned, sier gründer og partner Victoria Greene i G Squared Private Wealth til nyhetsbyrået.

Et flertall av de spurte i MLIV Pulse-undersøkelsen mener at forbrukerne vil kjøpe mindre de neste seks månedene, noe som er i tråd med advarsler fra Walmart om 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? at inflasjonen tvinger kundene til å betale mer for essensielle varer på bekostning av større forbruksgoder.

Et kutt i forbruket vil ifølge Bloomberg dra inntjeningen klart ned for S&P 500-selskapene som også sliter med høyere lønninger, stigende lagre og vedvarende forsyningskjedeproblemer i Kina.

S&P 500-marginene nådde toppen for et år siden, men vil ifølge tall fra Bloomberg Intelligence ikke nå bunnen før i årets fjerde kvartal. Konsensusestimatene for resultatmarginer (etter skatt) har – for både tredje og fjerde kvartal – falt rundt 0,5 prosentpoeng siden inneværende resultatsesong startet.

Ndamukong Suh SPAC Inks Merger With Parks Designer Falcon’s Beyond

Despite the bear market for special purpose acquisition companies, there are still deals being made. FAST Acquisition II, a SPAC featuring NFL player Ndamukong Suh as an advisor, plans to merge with theme park developer Falcon’s Beyond Global in a deal valuing the business at $1 billion.

Falcon’s Beyond Global is a theme park designer and developer formed in 2019 as a combination of Falcon’s Creative, which designs park rides, and Katmandu Group, which runs one of Spain’s most popular amusement parks. Spanish resort giant Melia Hotels is also a partner in the business.

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Currently, Falcon’s Beyond is a major designer for Qiddiya, a planned entertainment region of theme parks, sports venues (including motorsport racetracks) and academies for sports and the arts, according to a presentation shown to Falcon’s Beyond investors on Tuesday morning. Falcon’s Beyond Global styles itself as a mini Walt Disney Co., aiming to combine intellectual property development with parks, media and merchandising.

“Falcon’s Beyond is much more 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? than an entertainment and hospitality company; it’s a fully integrated, experiential entertainment enterprise with an impressive collection of both IP and brick-and-mortar assets,” Fast founder Doug Jacob said in Tuesday’s presentation. “The company’s ideal unit economics and significant opportunity for expansion offers an exceptional platform for growth in the booming entertainment category.”

The deal is the 12th SPAC merger announced in the past four weeks in what has become a sluggish environment for the 589 SPACs seeking merger deals, according to data from SPAC Alpha. Sportico data shows 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? there are 79 sports-related SPACs aiming to find or close mergers. One of them, Ace Global Business, filed with the SEC today terminating a previously announced deal to merge with cooking content publisher DayDayCook. The SPAC originally came to market seeking an Asia esports business.

The terms of the Falcon’s Beyond merger with the Fast SPAC seeks to incentivize shareholders to hold onto their equity through the merger—rather than opt to receive IPO capital back, as is their right—by creating a bonus pool of equity using 20% of the SPAC sponsor’s equity handed over for that purpose. In addition, half of non-redeeming shareholder equity will convert into a preferred equity, offering an 8% dividend and a 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? $11 conversion price.

Falcon’s Beyond is betting investors will appreciate its pipeline of deals, including 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? five full concept master plans for theme parks that could generate $655 million in fees and sales total, based on the business’ historical billing averages, according to the presentation. The business will also be part owner, with Melia, of destination resorts due to open in the next two years in Punta Cana, in the Dominican Republic; Tenerife, in the Canary Islands; and Playa del Carmen, in Mexico.

Past financial results for Falcon’s Beyond 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? Global haven’t been disclosed yet. The transaction values the business at 6.7 times projected 2024 EBITDA, according to management. Based on ratios offered by the company to investors, that would equal about $149 million in EBITDA on $455 million in revenue that year.什么是熊市(Bear Market)?

The Fast Acquisition II SPAC is led by Sandy Beall, a hospitality executive best known for leading the Ruby Tuesday’s restaurant chain. In addition to the participation of athlete-investor Suh, the SPAC management includes Rumble fitness developer Eugene Remm, among others. The first 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? Fast SPAC, which also includes Suh, saw a merger with Houston Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta’s restaurant chain fall apart in December.

Are We Seeing the Failure of a Bear Market Rally or Just a Healthy Pullback?

Stocks are set to gap lower to start the week. It is not a big surprise that the market is finally undergoing corrective action after a fast and furious run, but the billion-dollar question is how far it will go. Is this just a reset that will set the stage for another 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? push higher, or is it the failure of a bear market rally that the pessimists have warned us about?

The good news is we don't need to answer that question today, but we do need to increase our vigilance and be ready in case the selling pressure accelerates. The S&P 500 can pull back to 4,160 or so without doing major technical damage, but such a move would cause some pain and there likely will be some rotational action that is going to be harder on sectors such as growth, biotechnology, small-caps and technology.

The thing that is particularly interesting 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? about the market right now is how quickly the narrative is shifting. During the big run off the June lows, the narrative was that the market had already priced in the worst and that it could handle a hawkish Fed. There was increased optimism that the strong labor market would provide enough strength to withstand a series of rate hikes and avoid a recession. The drop in energy and commodity prices also provided hope that inflation had peaked.

Last week the narrative started to become less positive. The Fed has made it clear that it is not likely to pivot to a 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? more dovish stance very quickly, and there is increased debate over whether the unemployment rate needs to increase in order to effectively deal with inflation.

Some bulls contend that there has never been a bear market bounce of this magnitude that did not produce a bottom. We shall see, but we have never had economic conditions similar to this at this stage of the market cycle. I have little confidence that there is a historical precedent for this market.

As I've been discussing, I have raised quite a bit of cash into the recent strength primarily because many stocks I favor have become technically extended and I am not seeing many good entry points. Even after a few days of weakness, it is still going to take more work for better charts to develop.

This is the time for caution. Don't be in a rush to put valuable capital back to work. If you are going to trade, then keep time frames short and don't forget that we are going to be dealing with negative seasonality for a while.

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